Tag: Clayton Kershaw

Christmas Comes Early: Red Sox Acquire Chris Sale

Christmas comes early for Red Sox fans as the Old Towne Team acquires the best available pitcher for four prospects.  Never one to shy away from a blockbuster deal, Red Sox baseball cazr Dave Dombrowski has put the Red Sox in prime position to be  baseball’s best for the next several years.

WHAT DOES THE SALE TRADE MEAN TO THE RED SOX?

Chris Sale joins a rotation with Cy Young winners Rick Porcello (2016) and David Price (2012) not to mention 2016 All-Stars Steve Wright and Drew Pomeranz.  Clay Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez provide depth and possible trade chips for roster flexibility and future improvements.

If all goes according to plan, the triple-headed monster atop the rotation will account for 50 or so wins and more the 600 mostly-quality innings.  Improving the pitching rotation was not a top priority for the 2017 Red Sox, but Sale is a big-time difference maker.  With a vastly improved rotation combined with a rebuilt bullpen and a dynamic offense, the Red Sox are clearly the team to beat in the American League.

HOW GOOD IS CHRIS SALE?

Sale had yet to win a Cy Young Award, but his resume is quite impressive:

  • Finished in the top six of the AL Cy Young voting each of the past five years with a high of third place in 2014 when he compiled a 2.17 ERA.
  • Had a league-leading 274 strikeouts in 208.2 innings in 2015.
  • In the past five years, just one major league pitcher has a lower ERA than Sale’s 3.04 and more strikeouts than his 1,133.  His name is Clayton Kershaw.
  • Has struck out 27.9% of the batters he’s faced in his major league career, which is best among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched.
  • Has produced more value by Wins Above Replacement than any other players from the 2010 draft class, ahead of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  Read that last bullet point again … slowly … Yes, it’s true, Chris Sale has been that productive.
  • Has finished in the top 10 among AL pitchers in WAR four times, strikeouts five times, and ERA five times in just five seasons as a starter. That is a gigantic WOW!  
  • Ranks first among all active AL pitchers in career WHIP (1.01).  Partner in crime and fellow southpaw David Price ranks second (1.14).
  • Is 4-1 with an anemic 1.17 ERA in 10 career games against the Yankees.

Always a good sign when your newly-acquired, yet-to-reach-his-prime, 27-year-old-pitcher has a more accomplished career than his two Cy Young Award winning teammates.

AT WHAT COST DID THE RED SOX ACQUIRE CHRIS SALE?

A pitcheryoanmoncada of Sale’s caliber does not come cheap.  With an aim towards the World Series, the Red Sox paid a steep price to acquire one of the game’s best pitchers.  

The deal would not have happened without 21-year-old Cuban import Yoan Moncada changing his red sox for white.  The No. 1 prospect in Baseball America’s “Midseason Top 100”,  Moncada has compiled a .875 OPS with 94 stolen bases in 187 minor league games.  The switch-hitting, fielding-challenged Moncada was also named Baseball America’s 2016 Minor League Player of the Year.  He’s projected to be the White Sox second baseman of the future.  

Comparisons to Harper, Machado, and Mike Trout are a bit premature as Moncada strikes out at an alarming rate and is suspect defensively, but his raw potential is staggering.  He has big-time speed and major power potential built into a 6’2”, 205-pound frame.  With second base his likely landing place, Moncada reminds many baseball people of Robinson Cano.

The White Sox also receive flamethrowing prospect Michael Kopech, a potential ace with with a checkered past.  One of the game’s top pitching prospects, Kopech’s fastball consistently clocks at 101 mph and has reportedly topped out at 105 mph.  He also throws a plus curveball and is developing a change up.  Missed time due to a PED suspension and broken hand resulting from an altercation with a teammate have slowed his growth and caused reason for concern.  But Kopech has a big-time arm and the White Sox believe he is worth the gamble.

Luis Alexander Basabe, a speedy centerfielder with many tools, and Victor Diaz, a strong-armed reliever with command issues complete the deal.  Both have significant upside, but are several years away from cracking the majors.

Yes, the  bounty was high, but opportunities to acquire the Chris Sales of the world are few and far between.

IS THERE ANY RISK INVOLVED FOR THE RED SOX?

There is always some risk involved with blockbuster deals.  Sale’s low-slot, high-elbow pitching motion accounts for deceptive movement to his pitches, but also puts him at risk for declining velocity or potential injury.  Some scouts believe Sale’s pitching motion will cause acce2015-topps-chris-sale-213x300lerated wear and tear to his elbow.  The Red Sox are  using the past to project the future.  In his five year career, Sale has never made fewer than 26 starts and has qualified for an ERA title every year.  With the Red Sox pitching depth, an occasional skipped start to rest the arm should not be an issue.

The Red Sox are taking minimal risk financially as they control Sale for three years for $38 million — an absolute steal for an ace in today’s pitching market.  He will count just $6 million against the luxury tax next season.  The likely shedding of  Buchholz’s $13.5 million contract before the start of the season will keep the  Red Sox under the $195 million luxury tax threshold.

DID THE RED SOX MAKE A WISE DECISION IN TRADING FOR SALE?

Absolutely, positively yes.  Red Sox ownership brought Dombrowski to Boston to win a World Series, not to have the most players in Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list.  Sale in the starting rotation brings the Red Sox closer to the ultimate goal than Moncada, Kopech, et al developing in the minors.  The future is now.

Merry Christmas, Red Sox fans!

The (David) Price Is Right

New Red Sox president/GM/baseball czar Dave Dombrowski is bold, decisive, and clearly the man running the show.  By signing left-handed ace David Price to a seven-year, $217 million contract, Dombrowski was able to persuade owner John Henry to make a complete philosophical change in how to build a baseball team while laying the groundwork for the next Red Sox championship run.  
2016-topps-heritage-priceLast offseason, Jon Lester took his two World Series rings and boto Chicago after Henry told the world that spending lavishly on a 30-year-old pitcher was not sound business.  Today, the 30-year-old Price is on the verge of becoming the highest paid pitcher in the history of baseball.

Dombrowski has been preaching the need for an ace since he landed at Logan
Airport wearing Red Sox gear.  Henry opened his wallet and Dombrowski has his man.  Price is a bonafide, card-carrying, innings eating front of the rotation ace — arguably one of the game’s top five pitchers.  His resume includes a Cy Young Award and two runner-up finishes to go along with two ERA titles.  A true workhorse, he ranks fourth in the majors in innings and strikeouts, and third in wins since his first full season in 2010.  He was arguably the AL’s best starter in 2015.

The Red Sox get Price at the peak of his career and durability has not been an issue He has only one minor injury in his career, sitting out six weeks in 2013 because of a sore triceps.  He’s also been transitioning from a power thrower to a more complete pitcher over the last few seasons.  While maintaining a mid-90s fastball, Price has become more reliant on curveballs and changeups, which accounted for 25% of his pitches last season.  Not having to rely on the heat pitch after pitch will limit the wear and tear on his arm.

Price has also had tremendous success against stacked AL East lineups of recent years past and is 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA at Fenway Park over his eight-year career.  With the best defensive outfield in the league covering his back, Price has positioned himself well for continued success.

The one drawback?  And it’s a big one:  Price is 0-7 as a starter in his playoff career with a 5.27 ERA.  At $31 million annually, the man signing the checks and the win-at-all-costs fan base will  have much higher expectations over the next seven years.    Clayton Kershaw, the game’s top pitcher is also trying to figure out the winning formula for October. Both have been consistently strong early and late in seasons. Both are accustomed to performing in the spotlight. Both are aces instrumental in getting their teams to the playoffs.  I’m guessing that both will figure out how to win in the postseason with age and experience.

A bigger concern may be the opt out clause that will allow Price to enter the free agent market again in three years.  If Price performs as expected, the Red Sox will likely have to shell out even more money to retain Price or explore other pitching options.  In short, we may be looking at a three-year, $93 million contract.  A  World Series title or two in that time period would satisfy everyone.